Can Syria afford to loos its fight with the regime (internally)

Now that we are in the situation we are in, large group of Syrians are not joining the revolution because they don’t believe revolution can win, others will never join since they have an interstice interest in the regime. Some regional players believe world cannot afford the Syrian regime loosing grip for regional security concerns. But can the Syrians and the regional players afford the Syrian revolution loosing and the increased powers for the Syrian regime ? How would Syria look like if current regime gains control back from people, how would Syria look like and how would the region look like in the day after.

Internally it will be the 80’s again but with steroids, if regime gains control back and put down the revolt, then you can expect all local powers how supported the regime asking for a price, it is only logical to see an increased reliance -if the liked it or not- on the new powers that helped it maintain its authoritarian grip for years to come. In the 80’s after putting down popular protest in Hama, Edlib and Halab by Hafez -the father- we had almost ten years of lawless land with security forces living above the law, and a high reliance by the regime on Alwaite sect in the security forces and other sensitive area of government. When Bashar was getting groomed for the presidency he tried to win (successfully) Syrian people harts and minds by cracking down on his own family members, Alwaits Sect (his sect) and security forces in general, especially the In Your Face acts of humiliation to people.

This time we should see again an increase in reliance on these parties who helped the regime to fight the revolt again, I think we should see a new tilt again to his sect, and to lesser degree to other minority sects like Christians, also we will see more dependency on thugs and low life member of society from all sects like Shabiha and some tribe who helped with regime (Berri tribe in halab famous for their criminal acts and smuggling activities). Other outcome will be a crack down on Islamist and all signs of religious behaviour, just to affirm assertions made during the media battle over the protests with international viewers (regime media campaign claim that these all Islamic terrorist).

Economically local capital will leave Syria-I actually think money already flew out, and currency is defended by outside injections and maybe no will from others to complete crash of Syrian economy and further no funds will think on the short and medium term will get into Syria from regional or international investors. With very harsh sanctions from the EU and US (not sure if Turkey and the Arab League will keep their sanctions in the day after) local businesses will suffer greatly and will at least underperform its potential. finally when the chaos will hit the streets as the new power claim its pay out business will suffer some more.

In summary those who help the regime and fought for it will be demanding their pay, and they will get it in an increase dependency on them and if the 80’s is an indication then total immunity from all laws of the land. Economy will tank under the internal and regional pressure along with ever reduced oil export because of the decrease in availability and growth of population. Can the Syrian people afford keeping the regime, is the price for its downfall is higher than staying,, you judge


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